Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 44.951325 52.908992 61.609323 71.794485 83.355919 96.036229 110.959129
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 32.907158 43.447920 56.069531 72.150102 91.932511 115.305455 144.825188
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 26.237255 37.919389 52.926579 73.301471 99.883863 132.999725 176.931269
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 19.599888 30.841464 46.254571 68.419148 98.879229 138.608970 193.566811
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 16.808706 28.379674 45.111193 70.304594 106.369187 155.106668 224.706362
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 13.979981 25.296915 42.528735 69.639571 109.964098 166.275754 249.067451
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 12.908455 24.725610 43.489881 74.065453 120.936515 188.082946 289.043839
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.302773 21.162426 39.306649 70.136903 119.109048 191.383460 302.903844
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.328055 20.249442 39.237941 72.561390 126.944719 209.021099 338.133190
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.886450 20.229184 40.629749 77.416144 138.816772 233.209722 384.061627
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.089977 19.392077 40.474897 79.606049 146.488135 251.311953 421.607613
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.242915 18.307431 39.727276 80.655365 152.279318 266.694084 455.588361
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.972959 16.228049 37.096935 78.538243 153.339705 275.824476 482.284680
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.126471 14.920989 35.810522 78.799468 158.621886 292.290176 521.842920
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.497575 13.975309 35.098637 80.025990 165.632860 311.925412 567.405402
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.455801 11.734456 31.302780 74.767227 160.414261 310.642486 578.666333
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.102412 11.208327 31.159866 76.797879 168.773568 332.919242 629.929402
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.627467 10.212352 29.781545 76.081651 171.806701 346.009251 666.232048
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.518456 10.276305 30.920599 80.846726 185.779797 379.134914 738.149136
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.977294 8.826381 28.109068 76.617271 181.599503 379.355183 753.073747
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.816088 8.584996 28.329201 79.227781 191.381232 405.500491 814.488657
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.771108 8.743461 29.627933 84.451970 206.866483 442.888337 897.245383
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.620183 8.470331 29.713521 86.807252 216.484680 469.685949 961.998820